More information about the conference is here on the Products are Hard site.
Did a talk recently about Social and technology trends for banking, here are the slides.
Will write up some notes on this soon too.
A friend invited to me to attend the 21st Ernies Awards for Sexist Remarks and, since it was a thing I’d always meant to see, I went along.
While it was a raucous and boozy night filled with good humour and old friends catching up, the continuing slather of horrible, vile, demeaning sexist remarks was depressing.
As a number of attendees noted, the list of eligible remarks gets longer, not shorter, every year. This merely reinforced for me the lessons of the last few years; that deep misogyny remains embedded in our culture. This problem is summed up neatly by Gavin de Becker :
“At core, men are afraid women will laugh at them, while at core, women are afraid men will kill them.”
The sheer violence of many of the words used against women still astonishes me. The language and tone employed against women seems so very different from the terms of abuse that men hurl between each other. Also many of the words hurled between men use comparisons to women and girls as a way of demeaning their opponent. It has become increasingly clear from this ongoing language battle that being a woman is not seen as a good thing by men. Consider how many terms of opprobrium take the form of ‘you are acting like a girl’ or ‘harden up princess’, translating as ‘you are stupid and weak like a woman’.
It is time for parents who care to stop this tide of sexist remarks from growing. Time to stop children from throwing about the sexist language upon which they are suckled, especially from our sporting media.
It is worth noting that the Prime Minister appears to be a wind powered sexist remark generator on an industrial scale.
I also found encouragement in the Good Ernie award finalists and was pleased to see Lt. Gen. David Morrison win this award for his leadership and willingness to speak out. Until more men have the bravery to speak out like Morrison this battle will continue without end.
2013 Ernie Award Winners
The Ernie Award winners for 2013 and more information can be found at ernies.com.au
GOLD ERNIE and Industrial Silver Ernie
Wesley College students for distributing stubby holders bearing the words “It’s not rape if it’s my birthday.”
Political Silver Ernie
Mal Brough for the Liberal Party dinner menu featuring”Julia Gillard Kentucky Fried Quail – Small Breasts, Huge Thighs and a Big Red Box”
Media Silver Ernie
“The mask fell away” and Gillard came out “snarling, accusing Abbott of having a hatred of women, a man” he said – before his paper deleted it – “who unlike the Prime Minister, has raised three daughters.”
Judicial Silver Ernie
Professor Paul Wilson
“My findings were remarkably similar to studies in California and Scandinavia which suggest child victims of adult sex offenders are generally willing or active participants, and that they not infrequently initiate the sexual relationship.”
The Warney (Sport)
Nick Riewoldt – said that team mate Stephen Milne who was charged with 4 counts of rape, should be allowed to continue playing because “Milney is the absolute heart and soul of the football club.”
The Fred (Celebrity etc)
“Every person in the caucus of the Labor Party knows that Julia Gillard is a liar… The old man recently died a few weeks ago of shame, To think that he has a daughter who told lies every time she stood for Parliament.”
The Elaine (For remarks least helpful to the Sisterhood)
“While lack of humour infects both sides of politics, the Labor girls in particular need to loosen their pigtails. In Canberra today, there are far too few Fred Dalys and far too many Tanya Pliberseks.”
The Good Ernie
Lt General David Morrison
“On all operations, female soldiers and officers have proven themselves worthy of the best traditions of the Australian Army. They are vital to us maintaining our capability now and into the future. If that does not suit you, then get out.”
The Clinton (for repeat offenders)
The next generation of the internet is called the ‘internet of things’. Some people like to call it M2M or ‘machine to machine’ or ‘internet everywhere’. In any case it is here and it is about to shake things up.
The internet of things is where devices become connected and have embedded sensors that enable them to act and react in connected ways. It means that devices can talk to each other, can instruct and respond to each other in response to contextual stimuli. And by devices I mean any physical object that can have sensors and communications technology attached or embedded.
Objects are becoming embedded with sensors and gaining the ability to communicate. The resulting information networks promise to create new business models and disrupt existing business models.
The internet of things builds on the foundations of Web 2.0:
- User Control
Source: Launching the Web 2.0 Framework, Ross Dawson, May 30, 2007
The technical plumbing that is needed to make the internet of things real is already in place: TCP/IP, wifi, Zigbee, Bluetooth, etc. Key factors are almost ubiquitous wireless internet connectivity and devices with connection capability. These are already in place across the world.
The other technology trend that is supporting the emergence of the internet of things is ‘big data’ and our enhanced ability to derive actionable insights from the collection and analysis of enormous amounts of data.
The convergence of big data and ubiquitously connected smart devices means that we can harness predictive capacity and enable things or objects to act in ways that are contextually relevant. It also means that we can finally start using this technology to market to an audience of one. That is, we can use technology to craft individually meaningful and relevant marketing messages and deliver them within a particular context to drive purchase behaviour for a particular individual. The entire marketing conversation can be automated and have human agency largely removed from it, while retaining human-like communication modes and styles of communication. It seems that Minority Report might not have gone far enough in conceptualising the future of marketing.
How big is the market opportunity from the internet of things?
There are many different estimates of the size of the internet of things market. One thing remains constant, business leaders who understand the concept are making big calls and are changing their business focus as a result. For example John Chambers from Cisco:
“The Internet of Things, I think will be the biggest leverage point for IT in the next 10 years, $14 trillion in profits from that one concept alone”
Cisco Chief Executive Officer John Chambers, AllThingsD D11 Conference May 2013
Source: Internet of Things Poses Big Questions, Ben Rooney, July 3, 2013
Where and how do the business opportunities arise?
The internet of things creates value that is not in the devices, rather it is in the new services that are related to the devices. Connected devices are transformed from a single purchase product into a service that generates recurring income.
A big part of the business opportunity is making it possible to bypass traditional aggregators of demand and access customers via peer-to-peer channels. Apps are key to this peer-to-peer landscape and they look to be an important multiplier in the growth of the internet of things marketplace.
“Between 2008 and 2017, Google Play and Apple’s App Store will be responsible for a mind- blowing number of mobile app downloads: 350 billion.”
Source: Decade of the 350 Billion App Downloads
New business models are emerging, and it is seems that open and collaborative models particularly lend themselves to this more interconnected landscape.
- Open models will rule the new landscape – organisations that try to control the entire vertically integrated supply chain will struggle unless they bring in partners to add diversity. A good example of this is Apple with their app store, which enables them to have a vertically integrated supply chain along with diversity via apps.
- Collaboration and loose confederations – the barriers to entry that previously protected large players will begin to dissipate and provide opportunities for new entrants. Uber versus the taxi industry is a good example of this phenomenon.
- Agile, change ready organisations will be best placed to adapt in this new highly connected world. Any organisation that needs two years to get a new product to market will be overtaken by those who can move faster. A good example of this is Nokia. Their new Lumia Windows phone is a great product that is two years too late to market. And the delay in getting to market means that they will need to find a niche to dominate rather than become a mass provider – perhaps they can dominate as a camera with connectivity rather than as a smartphone? Here Nokia’s decision to align themselves with the notoriously non-agile Microsoft Windows could be part of the problem.
- Restructured supply chain – the internet of things offers enormous opportunities to restructure supply chains. Smart businesses will take advantage of this. In the 1990s ‘just in time’ inventory models revolutionised the cost base of doing business. The internet of things will provide similar opportunities.
What industries will be impacted?
All industries will be impacted but let’s examine the potential changes for a few that are interconnected:
- Retail – already we are seeing shoppers use online and offline retail channels to find the best product for the best price. We can expect to see this intensify and put increased pressure on offline retail. Apparel shopping is one area that can expect disruption. Already shoppers are using terrestrial stores as places to check the fit of apparel items of interest, a practice known as ‘showrooming’. Some stores are fighting back by imposing a ‘trying on charge’ that is deducted if a purchase is made in store. But what if the in store retail experience became richer? What if the products started to sell themselves? What if the products knew that you were already wearing a particular brand and reached out to you and suggested complementary products? For example, a pair shoes could recognise that you are wearing a particular brand of jacket and offer you a special deal as a result. The convergence of ubiquitous connectivity, big data, and internet of things makes this scenario possible.
- Transportation – We already have driverless transport with trains and Google is already showing us a glimpse of this future with their driverless car. But these new forms of transport require the development of new business models. For example, all that time we used to spend actually driving our cars will give rise to a new cognitive surplus – wonder what we’ll do with it? Play games, create art? Another example of new things that driverless vehicles will give rise to is smart intersections, because those new driverless cars will require smarter intersections that we currently deploy. The internet of things will make autonomous transport possible.
I gave a talk at Social Media Women in Sydney this week. The slides are below, I will get around to writing a longer piece about the internet of things soon.
In recent times I have been feeling very depressed about the state of things including sexism, misogyny, and leadership. But a few days ago came a beacon of hope.
This beacon came from an unlikely source, the Australian Army. And the topic that this person addressed was the sombre one of sexism and demeaning treatment of women by serving military personnel.
Yet I was moved and inspired by an eloquent demonstration of leadership.
This is what a leader does.
A leader speaks out for the right things.
A leader connects values to behaviour.
A leader takes ownership of problems within their organisation.
A leader sets the standards of acceptable behaviour for members of their organisation.
A leader gets their leadership team to stand along with them to support those standards.
A leader makes it clear that people who will not do the right thing are not welcome.
A leader embraces diversity and recognises its contribution to the organisation.
As Lt Gen Morrison said: “The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.”
It appears that Lt Gen Morrison has form with this kind of thinking. In his talk on International Womens’ Day 2013 where he made his position clear:
“Any nexus between an Army such as the one I aspire to lead and sexual assault is absolutely unacceptable. I will take all necessary steps to stamp out any hint of it among my soldiers.”
He went on to say:
“Yes, we do need to bond our soldiers to one another and instil toughness and resilience into them. But when this goal is invoked to degrade and demonise women and minorities it is undermining rather than enhancing capability. We need to define the true meaning of teamwork to embrace a band of brothers and sisters.”
Organisations everywhere still allow sexist behaviour to prevail. And until their leaders take the same kind of uncompromising attitude that David Morrison has, then sexist behaviour will not disappear.
While organisational leaders are mostly men, it is time for all of our leaders to step up and show similar leadership to that demonstrated so admirably by Lt Gen Morrison.
Even Warren Buffett recently spoke out on this topic, saying:
“Fellow males, get onboard. The closer that America comes to fully employing the talents of all its citizens, the greater its output of goods and services will be. We’ve seen what can be accomplished when we use 50% of our human capacity. If you visualize what 100% can do, you’ll join me as an unbridled optimist about America’s future.”
I encourage all to view the message from the Chief of Army, Lieutenant General David Morrison, AO, to the Australian Army following the announcement on Thursday, 13 June 2013 of civilian police and Defence investigations into allegations of unacceptable behaviour by Army members.
I also recommend the PDF transcript of Lt Gen Morrison’s speech at the United Nations International Women’s Day Conference, New York, March 2013
I usually write something to mark the passing of another ANZAC Day but was despondent this year and did not manage it on the day.
The fights on social media about the true meaning of ANZAC Day saddened me.
Then, earlier today, I was heartened to read the words spoken by the Governor of Tasmania, the Honourable Peter Underwood. His speech at the Hobart Cenotaph Dawn Service this year summarised my feelings precisely.
“I have always thought that communities gather together on ANZAC Day – usually around a war memorial or cenotaph – to do four things:
The first is to remember those who died or were wounded when their country called them to serve in wars, in other violent conflicts and in peacekeeping missions in which Australia has been, and still is involved.
The second is to reflect upon their service to our country, and for each of us, in our own way, to solemnly honour and pay respect to their bravery and courage.
The third is to think about their mental and physical suffering caused by their service and the pain, loss and suffering it caused their families and loved ones.
The fourth, and perhaps the most important is, as I said last ANZAC Day, to resolve that, in the future, each of us will ask those hard questions about the meaning of wars, their causes and outcomes, in order to become resolute about peace, as well as resolute about fighting when fighting is a genuinely necessary and unavoidable act of self-protection.
All our remembrances and honours are meaningless, unless we also vow to become resolute about peace because that is what those whom we remember and honour on this special day thought they were dying for.”
I commend Mr Underwood’s words and sentiments regarding ANZAC Day and its observance. It is worth reading the PDF of his entire speech.
In reading his speech I was also reminded of Thomas Gray’s meditation on life and death. It is easy to forget how brief our time here really is. And that no matter our state or circumstance we all await the “inevitable hour”.
“The boast of heraldry, the pomp of power,
And all that beauty, all that wealth e’er gave,
Awaits alike the inevitable hour.
The paths of glory lead but to the grave.”
– Elegy Written in a Country Church Yard
Following is a copy of some remarks that made about the future of jobs at the IT Talent Management Conference IT18.
Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak here today. I will start with a brief consideration of my own IT career and then consider how the changing technology landscape is reshaping for careers and for business.
When Phillip asked me to speak here today I started thinking about the origins of my IT career. I was literally standing in the kitchen at the National Trust in Sydney when the Executive Director, Wendy McCarthy, asked me if I would like to be the IT Manager.
I knew very little about technology at the time. But soon realised that it was a tremendous amount of fun. It was ideal work as it required learning new things, and experimenting to find out the best solutions. I became a jack-of-all-trades, doing a bit of programming, some database administration, desktop support, server and network engineering, across both Windows and UNIX systems.
Then Wendy said off the cuff one day, “so what are you doing about your career?” It was an entirely novel thought. I had never considered what I was doing as more than an interesting job.
After that I pursued an IT career with diverse organisations such as Citibank, AMP, General Electric, NSW Treasury, and Westfield. And during that time I saw enterprise IT in the raw.
My career progressed and eventually worked on fascinating projects in roles such as Enterprise Architect, Software Development Manager, Project Manager, Program Director, IT Manager, and CIO.
The way that I entered the IT world, informally and without a degree or IT qualification has largely disappeared, now a Bachelor’s degree is seen as a minimum requirement for entry.
How will the digital revolution impact jobs in the future?
The job that I do now did not exist when I left school. The technologies that I work with were not even dreamed of when I started my career.
Many people today are doing jobs that didn’t exist five years ago. At the same time many jobs are being displaced by technology.
IT has been undertaking a quiet revolution over the past forty years. Most people seem to have hardly noticed that IT has been about removing jobs from businesses, automating business processes and removing clerical or manual labour positions. This process of shifting work from people to machines has been under way for over forty years and shows no signs of abating.
There are now factories that have only a handful of people to run them. I know of a chemical engineer who is retraining as a maths teacher because he is lonely at work. In his factory it is just him and the maintenance engineer working onsite. Everything else is managed centrally.
It professionals are no stranger to this process. Outsourcing took jobs out of enterprise IT during the 1990s and early 2000s. Those jobs are not coming back.
Cloud computing is the new version of outsourcing. It will take internal IT jobs out of business on significant scale over the next decade. This means that the demand for system administrators, DBAs, server and network engineers working inside businesses will reduce. Some jobs will end up like the computer operators of yesteryear, a distant memory.
Traditional bespoke or custom application development is another area under threat. Increasingly organisations will continue to move to hosted SaaS platforms. And with the evolution of online marketplaces for application development, like Elance.com or Freelancer.com.au it will no longer be necessary for companies to have high cost internal development resources on premise.
Similar processes are in play for other roles too, and not just IT professionals.
For example designers. Why pay someone to sit in your office when you can simply outsource your new logo to 99designs.com?
Even big data can be subject to outsourcing and crowdsourcing via solutions like Kaggle.com, where even big companies like GE or Merck can have 88,491 of the world’s best data scientists working on their problem.
I see a difficult future for many giants of the IT vendor world. Oracle and SAP are two examples that spring to mind. Their business model is predicated upon installing large complex systems with long term client lock-in and high switching costs. Along with these vendors, the large systems integrator firms who do the implementations for these large systems will also face challenges. The traditional model of delivering a truckload of low paid graduates to work on a systems implementation and then charging the client high consulting rates will not be sustainable in the long term.
Ironically I see Microsoft as being well placed to weather this new environment, in particular with their enterprise footprint and products like Exchange, SharePoint, and their recent acquisition Yammer.
There was a time in the distant past where one could safely say ‘nobody ever got fired for buying IBM’. Those days are long past. This shift to cloud and SaaS is an equivalent technology revolution to the PC revolution. And this was a revolution that broke the business model for IBM. I’m not sure yet what this means for the IT industry and who will survive in the long term.
We as IT professionals need to look to our skills and position ourselves to be ahead of this trend. One thing that is worth noting, several of the startups that I’ve mentioned as part of the changing landscape are Australian in origin.
What the future hold for workers, workplaces and jobs
There are two quotes that sum up for me where we are today:
“@mpesce: We have clearly reached the point when anything of any interest is always being recorded to a device. Nothing is unseen any more.”
“There will come a time when it isn’t ‘They’re spying on me through my phone’ anymore. Eventually, it will be ‘My phone is spying on me’.” – Philip K. Dick
We live in the age of the quantified self. And we organise our lives by means of our smartphone apps. My Fitbit records how active I’ve been each day and allows me to compete with selected friends.
We update our status on publicly available forums like Facebook and Twitter.
This growth in social media and social sharing of personal information means that the nexus between personal private spaces and public open spaces has all but disappeared.
It also means that we are hyperconnected in ways that were impossible only a few years ago.
As Mark Pesce said in his recent TEDx talk
“Today we draw upon the knowledge, experience and intelligence of five billion others, our hyperconnected sharing now transforming learning into something utterly unprecedented.”
This means that we are also subject to more surveillance than any other generation that came before us.
As you have heard from previous speakers, the nature of recruitment is shifting. From finding a body to talent management. From finding a job to the right job finding you. From hiring for specific skills to hiring for character and training for skill.
This means that our entire social existence, which is increasingly mediated via social platforms online, now forms part of what people see when searching for us.
These social platforms are also increasingly important to users and disconnecting them from these channels during the work day is not acceptable.
Also employers are increasingly seeking to harness the online social profiles of their employees on behalf of the business. This is translating to employees becoming people with significant personal brands. Great examples of this are Charlene Li of Altimeter Group and Jeremiah Owyang formerly of Forrester then Altimeter.
How is the environment changing?
Changed competitive landscape: The digital revolution is also levelling the playing field between competitors, and being large is less advantageous than previously. Smaller competitors can form loose coalitions that provide similar scale to a larger organization without the need for capital intensive setup.
We are likely to see a reduction in the market power of big players. Some traditional businesses will fail to scan the environment and detect shifts in the consumer environment. A good example of this is the differences in adoption of new technology and business models and its impact on the performance of competitors Kogan and Harvey Norman.
New internet: Another game changer is the internet of things – things knowing information about their self and talking to each other, and enabling us to interact with them. Thus metadata becomes increasingly important and enables the continued development of augmented reality applications such as those made possible by technologies such as Google Glass.
The internet of things will be enabled by wirelessly connected sensor technology. An interesting example of this is DNA tags as used by ethical Australian timber company Simmonds Lumber to help stamp out illegal logging. Yet this technology will have important ramifications for our personal privacy too – we will be asked to trade-off convenience for privacy.
Cost shifting to lower cost regions will continue – but those regions may change as economic shifts happen in the developed world. That is, due to economic shifts, developed countries may evolve as lower labour cost regions.
Changing customer landscape: Power relations between business and consumers are shifting, and the shift is toward empowerment of consumers. This requires new attitudes and responses from business, and this requires customer insight which is provided by good data. Data will increasingly drive decision making and the making of meaning within businesses.
New approaches – loose coupling: Innovation will be powered by loosely coupled technical components that are joined up with loosely coupled business components. Even large businesses will need to find ways of being nimble and agile, to develop the ability to pivot rapidly in response to environmental changes.
Change cycles will increase in rapidity so businesses will need to constantly scan the external environment to assess and adapt.
Organizations will need to develop skills in entrepreneurship as an internal capability to drive innovation. If access to credit or capital becomes constrained then organic growth capability will be critical for business. Further, the ability to partner effectively with other organizations will also be critical to growth.
Effective use of resources becomes critical: Sustainability will continue to grow in importance, not just to save the environment. Sustainability will be important from both a cost control and environmental perspective.
Access to natural resources that we take for granted – such as water or petrochemicals – will become increasingly competitive. And access to other resources needed to grow a business is also likely to be problematic. A good example is access to credit.
New ways of doing traditional things like education and work: Schools and universities will not need to look like they do now. The need for large places and enormous investments in physical infrastructure are no longer necessary to perform the task of education. Online education and collaboration technologies mean that we do not necessarily need to ‘go’ to school in the way we do now.
This has implications for society and business. We currently use schools as a holding bay for children while their parents are working at the office 9-5. If young people no longer need to attend school in a physical sense then how will their parents manage, and what impact will this have on the traditional workplace?
Also the need for workers to be physically present at an office to do their work will reduce. Better communications and presence technology means that adults will also be able to work from other locations than the traditional office. Some good examples of the evolution of co-working in Australia are Hub Melbourne, or Hub Sydney, Vibewire and Fishburners in Sydney.
This will drive changes in the ways that organisations design and define their physical footprint. It also means significant changes for currently viable business models such as building and renting commercial real estate.
Yet human beings still need interaction with others. Our young people need to interact with each other physically to evolve as human beings. Adults need to connect with each other in the work context. We have a strong social drive and these needs still need to be met.
It is likely that localised co-working spaces will continue to evolve as solutions to this need for human contact and affiliation. No longer will we head, lemming-like, to a corporate office in the city, instead we will head to the local co-working space where we can connect virtually with our colleagues.
Rise of collaborative models – leisure, work, competition: This does not mean that competition will disappear, however it will change. Due to increasingly scarce resources collaboration will become more important for business. Further, the question of why a business needs to do everything for itself will become important. With cloud and ubiquitous connections to the network partnering with best-of-breed service providers will be easier.
In the personal sphere collaboration is likely to increase too. And the change will be driven by similar considerations to business. For example, why own a car when you don’t need one all the time, especially if you can get access to one whenever you need it?
Shared resources – cars, tools, etc – will make increasing sense to people and shift the consumer culture from one of product acquisition to service adoption. Some good examples of existing collaborative consumption models include Open Shed and 99 Dresses.
The future is a distant country*
Some of my prognostications will be wrong in their particulars. But the technology trends are clear. The next decade will see the rise of new businesses fuelled by technologies that don’t exist yet. The job I do for a living did not exist when I left school. The industry I work in did not exist at the start of my career. I can see no reason why those trends will change in future. We need to be open to the new opportunities and accept that things move faster now.
* with apologies to L.P. Hartley